29-April-2020
Economist often simple down the complex world into basic concepts and abstracts, think of say supply and demand – to explain the world in action. In the same vein, at the time of writing, the current debate is about the economy vs health, to paraphrase the tag line in the hit TV show ‘Iron Chef’ from Japan (and redubbed in English), “who will reign supreme?”.
To put it simply, most of the world’s governments have chosen to place health above the economy. That is, to limit the number of deaths and to mitigate the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, officials have elected to shut down pretty much everything, to flat line the number of cases, so that their respective health systems can cope. Obviously, the solution is not ideal for everybody and the results being, the loss of incomes and the loss of freedoms, causing tremendous amount of pain, hardship and suffering.
On the other hand, there are a few countries who have chosen to put the economy first and they aren’t exactly in a happy place either. Their health care system is overwhelmed and there are numerous infected and leading to significant number of deaths. Even if shops and restaurants are open, people are afraid to go in and spend money anyway. To put bluntly, the crisis has had a significant impact and life is definitely not the same as before.
So the question really comes down to is, which is the better choice, which one gives you the least pain? The answer really depends on your personal circumstances. If you are a business owner, who’s income has evaporated and your family is now starving, you’d want to at least be able to open and earn a few bucks. Catching the virus or not is a later problem, the acute pain felt and brought on by an empty stomach trumps all future considerations.
On the other hand, should you be a health worker on the front line, who’s working shifts after shifts, putting your body on the line to help the sick, dealing with the trauma of seeing people dying, you’d be saying, give me a break as people’s health is more important than the economy.
In life as in all things, there will always be winners and losers. It all depends on which side of the fence you are sitting on. Also, being a winner today can easily mean becoming a loser tomorrow, so the key is to success is being able to look at the options and to choose wisely for both short term and the long run.
As humans, we make decisions on imperfect information, based on our emotions, our biases and prior experiences. We value certain things above others but another group might feel that is stupid. Take one of Trump’s key policies to build the wall, so if you think that a wall provides good security, which is what you value above other considerations, then you’d vote for Trump. On the other hand, you might say the billions can be better spent on addressing inequality, then most likely, you’d think building the wall is stupid. In short, we value different things in accordance with our whims and because we believe ourselves to be right (all the time), it does make for some very interesting and heated debates.
To put my neck on the line, I thought I offer you my own personal perspective on the economy vs health debate. Again, what I think is important could be stupid to you.
Firstly, I don’t want to get sick, whether it is the flu or covid-19. Obviously this is not something I can absolutely control but I can minimise risks where possible. I know you can take all the precautions and you can still get it, whereas some people who hang out in large crowds in areas of known infections and still test negative. That said, I feel a bit more comfortable for taking some control of my life – to mitigate the risks of catching the SARS-Cov-19 virus. I don’t feel it is too much of a burden to stay at home and in the grand scheme of things, I understand the trade offs, where I feel the benefits of not getting sick outweighs losing a bit of (temporary) freedom.
Secondly, I’m not so gung ho. I’m old enough to know I’m not invincible. Yes, the stats showed only a small % of people die and only a small % of people have severe symptoms. However, I’d like to be a little bit cautious and be on the right side of the numbers. That is, I don’t want to take that chance and hope to never have the ‘opportunity’ to find out whether I’d be one of those small % of people.
Thirdly, let’s suppose you got it and you showed little or no symptoms. By a large degree, you are ‘fine’. However, because of your close proximity to other close family members and they in turn got it from you. Let say, subsequently they then suffered and even died. This is definitely a scenario I don’t want to happen to my family and I’d like not to have live life with that burden of regret.
Forth, let’s assume you got it, it’s gotten worst and you ended up in the hospital. If you think being holed up at home for days on end is bad, then being holed up in the hospital is a lot worst. Also, from the news report that I’ve read, some patients’ conditions do turn for the worst very quickly. So if you are one of those, you’d be struggling to breath, you’d be sedated and there are tubes going down your throat. Not exactly a pleasant experience. Sure, it beats dying but if that is something that I can avoid, then yes absolutely I want to avoid it.
Fifth, you are also assuming you’d get health care, you’d get a hospital bed, you’d get a ventilator when you need one. During a health pandemic, there are hundreds, if not thousands of the same patients in your condition, all are fighting for a bed and all are fighting for a chance to live. Already, there are reports of health systems being overwhelmed with people being turned away and only to die in their homes or out in the streets. Again, I prefer not to tempt fate and take my chances that way.
Lastly, when there isn’t enough beds, someone will have to make a choice about whether you receive care (or the amount of care). Being in a lottery of life and death is not fun. You might not care about the feelings of health professionals having to make that heart breaking choice but you on the receiving end certainly would feel the magnitude of that choice. What if someone else was chosen above you to live? You certainly wouldn’t be too happy about that. Or what if you were chosen to live, say above another child? Or how is your life more worthwhile than an 80 year old grandmother with 20 grand kids, up until then was still actively volunteering in the soup kitchen. Would you have the ‘courage’ to say to those not chosen to get a chance – “sorry buddy”. Could you then look into their love ones’ eyes and explain to them why you lived and they died? It’s something that boggles the mind and is something I’d like not to think about.
In life, I don’t get to pick and choose all my outcomes. However, if I can help it, then I will do what I can within my sphere of control, which right now is being sensible and responsible. I feel that by being able to avoid the negative outcomes, I’m already out in front and winning. Being alive means that you still have game and that’s a very good outcome in itself. Yes, the game has gotten tough, you are beaten down and your face is covered in mud. Though, do take a moment to smile, as you are still in it and still have a chance to win it.
Struggle Perpetual 